Evaluating the Impact of Mega-Sports Events on Urbanization Focusing on Land-Use Changes Using a Scenario-Based Model

Mega-sports events have a profound impact on promoting the urbanization process, optimizing urban spatial structure, and improving competitiveness of host city. Taking 19th Asian Games Hangzhou 2022 (AGH) as an example, we used remote sensing data scenario-based model to simulate land-use changes developments from 2005 2025. By setting two scenarios, natural development AGH-driven development, explored AGH its driving factors. The results show that (1) cultivated land areas decreased by 369.96 km2, while construction increased 488.33 km2 among main types in 2020. Urban quickly expanded with West Lake center. (2) sprawl intensity under scenario is expected increase 0.91% compared natural-development scenario, indicating hosting would accelerate expansion land, particularly districts set sports venues such Binjiang, Xiaoshan, Yuhang. strategic trend supporting Qiantang River obvious. (3) Under influence AGH, centroid shifted towards southeast, direction was remarkable. facilities, for public rail transit, are direct forces expansion. enhances pace urbanization, significantly altering structure helping city achieve major transition Era Era. Furthermore, our research can provide insights into other cities will mega-sports events.